Before selecting a mortgage product it is worthwhile looking at likely interest rate trends: in their February meeting, the MPC voted 5-4 to hold base rate at 3.75%, with four members voting for a further cut. Although the move was widely expected, the vote split was much narrower than City analysts predicted. Measures from 2025’s Autumn Budget are anticipated to “weigh” on inflation and help bring it down to 2.1% in April 2026 from the current level of 3.4%, due to an anticipated reduction in energy prices. Andrew Bailey commented that “All going well, there may be scope for some further reduction in Bank rate this year”.
It is impossible to be definitive which of today’s products offer best value. Pricing rose steeply following the now infamous mini-budget in September 2022 but has fallen steadily since August 2024, although volatility currently remains. Base rate is projected to settle at around 3.50%, sometime in 2026. Fixed rates offer protection going forward but the choice of term will depend on how quickly rates fall. Tracker products offer good value and excellent flexibility. Those with surplus capital should consider the tax advantages of an offset arrangement.